Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 34 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b5434edea138d249…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh241a1965 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshd5eef85d →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 34 hours ago
- Snapshot
- c5d03708
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
63.0%→99.4%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 36.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
67%→58.5%-8.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 35.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?YES moved up by 15.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 51.7 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 35.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?
YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
18%→11.5%-6.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot