不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-18
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月18日 下午09:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 34 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月18日 下午09:14 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- b5434edea138d249…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh241a1965 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshd5eef85d →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 34 小時前
- 快照
- c5d03708
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
63.0%→99.4%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
67%→58.5%-8.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高34 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高34 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高34 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 35.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高35 小時前
預期變化Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?YES moved up by 15.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高35 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高35 小時前
預期變化Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 51.7 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高36 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 35.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高36 小時前
機率變動
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?
YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
18%→11.5%-6.5 個百分點
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