不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-19
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月19日 上午10:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 21 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月19日 上午10:14 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 9c2c38a55eae0150…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshf533f814 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh7913cd16 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 21 小時前
- 快照
- ba502bf1
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?
61.0%→93.5%· 24小時
+32.5pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?
40%→13.5%-26.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 26.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 32.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高21 小時前
預期變化Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?YES moved down by 26.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高21 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高21 小時前
預期變化US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 32.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高22 小時前
預期變化Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?YES moved down by 24.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高22 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高22 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高23 小時前
預期變化US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高23 小時前
機率變動
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
16.5%→24.5%+8 個百分點
+8pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
典藏快照
典藏
依時間排列、不可變的出版紀錄。
編製區段Claims觸發狀態快照