Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? increased by 51.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? increased by 51.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 2e30bece-9eb6-4ca1-b9e2-6aa9c8961dd1
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 07:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 07:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? increased by 51.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T19:14:56.303863+00:00 · external market id: 3253022 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: c34f5529-a4ab-414e-be88-0b5af320abb3
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
693316a4-5583-47a2-9a8a-5b46c4526a42Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? increased by 51.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.