- Publication state
- Live
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified Claims
- 97
- Source Observations
- 20
- Research Screening
- 1
- Records · 24h
- 19377
- Snapshot captured
- 15 minutes ago
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
26%→38.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
🔬 Research screening
1 eligible public watches · not Claims
Trial portfolio · investigated
Oncology immunotherapy trials span Phase 1 and Phase 2Screening contextOncology immunotherapy3 public records from ClinicalTrials.gov; not yet a Claim.
Anhui Provincial Hospital + 2 other sponsorsCross-sectional phase coverage
→ 2 phases · 3 studiesRegistry portfolio as of Aug 2026 · 3 records · ClinicalTrials.gov
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
34.5%→29.5%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 24 hours agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
↗ Live signal tape
4 verified · 8 monitored Topics · deduplicated
Verified · ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
62%↘ -3.5pp · 24h
direction only⏱ in 20 days
Verified · ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
75%↗ +3pp · 24h
direction only⏱ in 3 months
Verified · ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
10.5%↗ +3pp · 24h
direction only⏱ in 4 days
Verified · ExpectationsWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?
3.4%↘ -1.8pp · 24h
7d · 145 obs⏱ in 20 days
38.5%↗ +12.5pp · 24h
7d · 171 obs⏱ in 20 days
Source · politicsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
29.5%↘ -5pp · 24h
7d · 169 obs⏱ in 5 months
Source · iranIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
45%↗ +5pp · 24h
Δ24h⏱ in 3 months
Source · main electionWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
29.5%↘ -4pp · 24h
7d · 185 obs⏱ in 5 months
Verified judgment ledger
12 active Claim records · no duplicate projections
DeskClaimMoveConfidenceEvidenceVerified
↘down direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified-0.8pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+0.7pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+1.0pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+1.6pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? increased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+1.9pphigh
↘down direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified-2.0pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+2.0pphigh
↘down direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified-2.0pphigh
↘down direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified-1.9pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+3.0pphigh
↗up direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified+3.0pphigh
↘down direction · ExpectationsThe YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.Polymarket Gammaderived observation · verified-3.5pphigh
⚖ Rule watch
Normalized source facts
Rule
International Services Surveys: BE-180 Benchmark Survey of Financial Services Transactions Between U.S. Financial Services Providers and Foreign Personsnot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Retail Commodity Transactions Involving Certain Digital Assetsnot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Custody of Digital Asset Securities by Special Purpose Broker-Dealersnot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Cybersecurity Talent Management Systemnot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Copyright Registration Guidance: Works Containing Material Generated by Artificial Intelligencenot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Reporting of Securities Loansnot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Further Definition of “As a Part of a Regular Business” in the Definition of Dealer and Government Securities Dealer in Connection With Certain Liquidity Providersnot published→final
Federal Register
Rule
Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehiclesnot published→final
Federal Register
◌ Source coverage
Raw intake · context only, not published Claims