Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ea699383-8c07-410a-a195-86e7035a9478
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T13:14:52.957835+00:00 · external market id: 3324624 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
89e4becf-e8aa-463e-a3fa-cd84da7a0aacLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.