Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-20
- Composed
- Aug 20, 2026, 02:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 20, 2026, 02:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- a342c1b73450d6ee…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh2c3dfe88 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh53807261 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 6c152bb4
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
62%→54%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
55.0%→49.5%-5.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
16.5%→38.5%+22pp
ObservedYES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran leadership change by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
↑ upExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 3.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
Probability move
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
YES moved up by 3.1 percentage points over 24 hours.
93.5%→96.7%+3.1 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot