Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-20
- Composed
- Aug 20, 2026, 01:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 6 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 20, 2026, 01:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 70b5c9b682d2ccc3…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh44b425a3 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh6c152bb4 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 6 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 2c3dfe88
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
55.5%→49.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
58.5%→51.5%-7pp
ObservedYES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
16.5%→38.5%+22pp
ObservedYES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsIran leadership change by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 7.7 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 hours ago
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
23%→18%-5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot