Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 08:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 11 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 08:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 9bd651615e26a5dc…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh973b3547 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh57872eb7 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 11 hours ago
- Snapshot
- e2c51a63
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
57.5%→49%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
10%→3.0%-7.0pp
ObservedYES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsIran leadership change by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh11 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh11 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh11 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh12 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh12 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh12 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?YES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh13 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh13 hours ago
Probability move
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
43.5%→38%-5.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot