Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 04:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 15 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 04:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 24930325d5d70b1f…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshd71e2007 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshbc29a837 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 15 hours ago
- Snapshot
- e139de49
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?
63.0%→94.5%· 24h
+31.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
11%→3%-8pp
ObservedYES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
62.5%→98.8%+36.3pp
ObservedYES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh15 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh15 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh15 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 33.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 60.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh17 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 32.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh17 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
15.5%→10%-5.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot