Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 08:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 23 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 08:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 37a79cfc4e51e2eb…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshd6cc6405 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshf533f814 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 23 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 1135db3c
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
62.5%→98.8%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?
61.0%→92.5%+31.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsYoon out of custody before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsYoon out of custody before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh23 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh23 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh23 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh24 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh24 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh24 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 37.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
16.5%→24.5%+8 percentage points
+8pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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