Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 29 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- a5c4a4a53d3e2e26…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh50991e29 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh5fd830e9 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 29 hours ago
- Snapshot
- e4811834
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
63%→99.4%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 36.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?
71.5%→96.4%+24.9pp
ObservedYES moved up by 24.9 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsWill Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh29 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 24.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh29 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh29 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 24.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh31 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh31 hours ago
Probability move
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
86.5%→75.5%-11 percentage points
-11pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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