Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 31 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- edf256e61dffe485…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh680258db →
- 02supersededsection_refresh50991e29 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 31 hours ago
- Snapshot
- efbeccb6
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?
+23.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
55.0%→71%+16pp
ObservedYES moved up by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
+7pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.