Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-20
- Composed
- Aug 20, 2026, 06:27 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 20, 2026, 06:27 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 8c255a323b940fe5…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 7e31a428
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
15.5%→20%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
22.5%→27%+4.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Expectations2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
↑ upExpectationsFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
↑ upExpectationsFed rate hike in 2026?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?YES moved down by 3.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 5.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?YES moved up by 19.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?YES moved up by 39.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
Probability move
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
YES moved down by 3.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
58.0%→54.5%-3.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot