Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 33 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 2cd59371e81295d8…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshc5d03708 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh680258db →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 33 hours ago
- Snapshot
- d5eef85d
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
63.0%→99.3%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?
71.5%→95.5%+24pp
ObservedYES moved up by 24.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
82%→93.5%+11.6pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 24.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 35.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?YES moved up by 15.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
16.5%→26.5%+10 percentage points
+10pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot