Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? increased by 15.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? increased by 15.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- db6b1e2e-294d-40af-9e78-e4a4ba52f110
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? increased by 15.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T20:15:13.533019+00:00 · external market id: 3253023 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-19T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 115137b5-186e-4631-86ee-e9015c07bb58
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
524b118f-bac4-444e-acf6-f96e3ab66f95Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? increased by 15.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.