Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 13 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 8e3176e124ad45ec…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshbc29a837 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh973b3547 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 13 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 7cc68548
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
16.5%→38.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
11%→3%-8pp
ObservedYES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
62.5%→98.8%+36.3pp
ObservedYES moved up by 36.2 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?YES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh13 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh13 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh13 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh14 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh14 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh14 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh15 hours ago
ExpectationsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh15 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
55.5%→49%-6.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot