Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 19 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 828528900954313f…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh7913cd16 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshb7cf8d84 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 19 hours ago
- Snapshot
- f3d2e13e
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
+61.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 61.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?
61.0%→93.5%+32.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 32.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
43%→19.5%-23.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.