Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? decreased by 26.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? decreased by 26.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 6781353d-3091-4ff1-a6c1-1a002ef6520a
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? decreased by 26.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T10:14:32.398197+00:00 · external market id: 3564692 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: c1aa9759-3095-4a48-953a-0f6e7518d58e
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
d15e1867-326f-44c9-9068-134e9796830dLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? decreased by 26.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.