Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 06:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 25 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 06:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- f102042b52d91813…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresha7a123a6 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshd6cc6405 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 25 hours ago
- Snapshot
- f062c22a
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
62.5%→99.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 37.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?
61.0%→92.5%+31.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→51.5%+11.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsYoon out of custody before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsSudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 37.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?YES moved up by 31.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 37.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh26 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 24.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh26 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 15.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh26 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?YES moved up by 36.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh27 hours ago
ExpectationsUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?YES moved up by 24.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh27 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
56.0%→70.5%+14.5 percentage points
+14.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot