Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? increased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? increased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 48a84ce2-e76a-4ada-baf2-a7f3d0a7d8c4
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 01:17 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 01:17 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? increased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T01:17:15.325870+00:00 · external market id: 2373847 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: c546d8b1-2a1c-4c5a-8265-c8f5eec64f14
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
61ceaf0e-5949-47f7-bd21-248480cbbcfcLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? increased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.