Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee? increased by 13.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee? increased by 13.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 626e7bcc-f36f-4172-b20f-fdc9d9d15edc
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 09:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee? increased by 13.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T21:14:22.590930+00:00 · external market id: 3069744 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 4a19601d-29da-4e8b-bc73-932971e5cb31
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
b1d6dcb1-3d1d-4aa4-9514-f14a8b4a48c2Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee? increased by 13.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.