Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- d6c6abda2503fb11…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh8e68a513 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh722a2e2c →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 days ago
- Snapshot
- 1ba828f9
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
+13.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
64.0%→57.0%-7pp
ObservedYES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
+6pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.