Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- d7c7cf4e29e266bc…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh663adf6a →
- 02supersededsection_refresh1ba828f9 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 days ago
- Snapshot
- 8e68a513
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
+7.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
62.5%→57.5%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
YES moved up by 46.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
+46.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.