Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- d5538b6fa307d278…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh1ba828f9 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshe5635889 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 days ago
- Snapshot
- 722a2e2c
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
+12.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
63.5%→57.5%-6pp
ObservedYES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
40%→77.5%+37.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
YES moved up by 51.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
+51.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.