Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? increased by 51.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? increased by 51.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 7904141e-a530-467f-85bc-c158f9814ed8
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? increased by 51.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T14:14:09.454666+00:00 · external market id: 3565497 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-17T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: d3730d14-b585-4e67-8d72-07ed5235ffed
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
a87a5585-1f87-4954-9479-c4a9011e0708Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? increased by 51.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.