不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-17
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月17日 下午01:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 3 天前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月17日 下午01:14 [UTC]
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- d6c6abda2503fb11…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh8e68a513 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh722a2e2c →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 3 天前
- 快照
- 1ba828f9
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→53.5%· 24小時
+13.5pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
64.0%→57.0%-7pp
觀測YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
觀測YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 46.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 10.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
機率變動
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
37%→43%+6 個百分點
+6pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
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