不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-19
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月19日 下午10:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 9 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月19日 下午10:15 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh57872eb7 →
- 02supersededsection_refresha8183468 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 9 小時前
- 快照
- 3c0df954
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
55.5%→49%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
43%→38%-5pp
觀測YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
觀測YES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高9 小時前
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高9 小時前
預期變化Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?YES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高9 小時前
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高10 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 4.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高10 小時前
預期變化Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?YES moved up by 4.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高10 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高11 小時前
預期變化Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高11 小時前
機率變動
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
YES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
8.5%→5.5%-3 個百分點
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