Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- fe683fc9-e4b6-4015-a03b-f94b983a7f2f
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T22:15:41.447886+00:00 · external market id: 2853074 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 3a5c2e0d-1991-4d70-980d-5cb8031f86c9
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
b00c9caf-37d3-4eec-b357-1c05e168913eLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.