Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 9 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 54a321eb3baedb50…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh3c0df954 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh50c11195 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 9 hours ago
- Snapshot
- a8183468
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
89.9%→97.6%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 7.7 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
55.5%→49.5%-6pp
ObservedYES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 7.7 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 hours ago
ExpectationsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?YES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh11 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 4.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh11 hours ago
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
23.5%→19%-4.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot