Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-20
- Composed
- Aug 20, 2026, 03:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 20, 2026, 03:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 4aed1198ec62c6c7…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh6c152bb4 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshe2be16b7 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 53807261
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Observed
YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
3.0%→38.0%+35pp
ObservedYES moved up by 35.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
16.5%→38.5%+22pp
ObservedYES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
YES moved up by 11.9 percentage points over 24 hours.
+11.9pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.