Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- ae54c44d6ccc7f10…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshb816c770 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshcc34716a →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 days ago
- Snapshot
- db14c56f
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
51.5%→70%· 24h
+18.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 18.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
11.0%→20%+9pp
ObservedYES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 18.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 4.7 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
24.5%→18.5%-6 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot