Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 86b8214f-fa69-4751-b2d2-36bf7ea787c5
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T14:15:25.029624+00:00 · external market id: 3565498 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-17T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 263edabb-4213-4446-af69-cb56e7e585b4
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
9519ef79-7122-476c-be5c-6c9327b2da94Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.