Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 46 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- c0ea2a9bee81c4a4…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh2138f934 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh31433559 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 46 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 8467eba7
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
-16pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
29.0%→13.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→51.5%+11.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.