Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 45 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- e8984c1230937dbf…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh8467eba7 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh32a18f39 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 45 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 31433559
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
22.9%→3.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
27%→13.5%-13.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→51.5%+11.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh45 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh45 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh45 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh46 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh46 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh46 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh47 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh47 hours ago
Probability move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
61%→49.5%-11.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot