Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 07:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 07:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- a343017a498c63ae…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh1c1bcc02 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh77518113 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- 6e8016fd
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
+17pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
0.5%→3.9%+3.4pp
ObservedYES moved up by 3.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
YES moved up by 24.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
+24pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.