Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 06:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 06:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 75e4d5048159ba82…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshc2d2ff29 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh6e8016fd →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 days ago
- Snapshot
- 1c1bcc02
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
+17pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
22.5%→36.5%+14pp
ObservedYES moved up by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
-7pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.