Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 06:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 06:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b50e5bebde2e9bf9…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh4be3c9a9 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh4422f004 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 days ago
- Snapshot
- 2074ab3a
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Observed
YES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
80.4%→77.3%-3.0pp
ObservedYES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
YES moved up by 20.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
+20pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.