Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 04:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 04:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b26fed4a11adc163…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshe5635889 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh4be3c9a9 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 days ago
- Snapshot
- 1f63652a
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→51.5%· 24h
+11.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
47%→38%-9pp
ObservedYES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
82%→93.5%+11.6pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
↓ downExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsWill Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsWill BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
Probability move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
64.0%→58.0%-6 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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