Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- d5cadd79c05352fd…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresha24149c5 →
- 02supersededsection_refresha5866203 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 days ago
- Snapshot
- a95373e6
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
-16.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved down by 16.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
43.5%→33.5%-10pp
ObservedYES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
+10pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.