Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 3ba68db3c7706c57…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresha95373e6 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh726b663b →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 days ago
- Snapshot
- a5866203
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
41.5%→25.5%· 24h
-16pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
35.5%→45.5%+10pp
ObservedYES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 4 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsWill ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsWill Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 16.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?YES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsWill DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 days ago
Probability move
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
YES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
22.5%→12.5%-10 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot