Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-14
- Composed
- Aug 14, 2026, 05:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 6 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 14, 2026, 05:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 8cdd4d1af8f80257…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh13f4884e →
- 02supersededsection_refresh2db61833 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 6 days ago
- Snapshot
- 96299fa5
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
78.5%→12.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 66.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
52%→26.5%-25.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 25.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 9 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↑ upExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↑ upExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 66.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 25.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 65.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 6.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 67.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 23.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 days ago
Probability move
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
55.4%→61.4%+6.0 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot