Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? increased by 31.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? increased by 31.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 76b14804-739d-4543-a3c2-29ca56e70ea6
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2026, 05:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 17, 2026, 05:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? increased by 31.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-14T05:15:46.194112+00:00 · external market id: 2866671 · resolution deadline at: 2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 7fc679ec-9ec4-4f00-98a7-30d7be3e01e7
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
6c83d93a-b08d-48ed-a311-f334707e8f80Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? increased by 31.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.