Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 08:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 08:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- ef86051881eb7590…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshae8a4a66 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh8467eba7 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 days ago
- Snapshot
- 2138f934
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Observed
YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
40%→26.5%-13.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→51.5%+11.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
+9.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.