Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-16
- Composed
- Aug 16, 2026, 03:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 16, 2026, 03:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 82fa3f4b83731d8a…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshfedaefd6 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshde4135e7 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- f7acea07
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
70.2%→67.2%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
33%→19.5%-13.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downExpectationsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?YES moved up by 4.3 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved down by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
32.5%→39.5%+7 percentage points
+7pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot