Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 729da7f0e2bb5fa0…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh5d9bc36e →
- 02supersededsection_refreshd93876fe →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 days ago
- Snapshot
- e8242eb3
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
21.5%→13.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
57.0%→50.5%-6.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
47%→13.5%-33.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 33.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsModi out by December 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
↓ downExpectationsModi out by December 31, 2026?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 6.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
Probability move
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
63.9%→68.5%+4.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot