Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 04:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 04:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 3f98be06e576f316…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshcc34716a →
- 02supersededsection_refreshc2d2ff29 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 days ago
- Snapshot
- b8a6385d
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
+20pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 20.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
64.7%→67.8%+3.1pp
ObservedYES moved up by 3.1 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
+10pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.