Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 04:21 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 04:21 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 665abe8f07e185dd…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 866ca709
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
34%→30%-4pp
ObservedYES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 31 hours agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved up by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved up by 20.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
Probability move
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
18.5%→21.5%+3 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot