Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- effdb609c841cefa…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshe0d04a75 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh9a5db03a →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 3a5ecd8e
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
8.0%→28.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 20.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
26%→36%+10pp
ObservedYES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 28 hours agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved up by 20.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
Probability move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
46.5%→52.5%+6 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot