Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 73d11542397cb6f0…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh3427d0fe →
- 02supersededsection_refresh0f2b1a24 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 65298001
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
65%→56.0%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
22%→13%-9pp
ObservedYES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsIran invades Kuwait by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsWill Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
↓ downExpectationsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
29.0%→20.5%-8.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot